tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN November 17, 2013 7:00am-8:01am PST
you should thank us for it. >> i have to stop. thank you so much for coming. thank you for watching "state of the union." i'm candy crowley in washington. if you missed any part of today's show you can finds on itunes. search "state of the union." "fareed zakaria gps" starts right now. >> this is "gps" the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. we have a terrific show for you today starting with china's important announcements. beijing says the one child policy will be relaxed after more than 30 years and it will abolish its labor camps. what's behind these decisions and others? what do they mean? five decades after shots rang out killing president john f. i can, robert carroll will tell us
about that and how it changed america and the world. a "gps" checklist for how to ruin a national economy. one managed to check off all boxes and it's not the united states. i'll explain. on wednesday, diplomats from the united states, france, germany, the united kingdom, russia and china, will sit down to once again to hammer out a deal with iran over its nuclear program. it's a tough challenge made tougher by the breakdown of talks in geneva eight days ago. in diplomacy, transparency is often the enemy of progress. negotiations are best conducted secretly until there is an agreement. when carried out in full public view, a diplomatic process simply allows opponents to attack every concession made on one side paying little attention to concessions on the other side. even imagined concessions get attacked.
israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu protested against the proposed deal with iran even though john kerry said he didn't actually know what was in it. >> it's a very bad deal. >> one party that did know what was in the proposed agreement was france. the french took the unusual step of breaking ranks with western colleagues to publicly denounce the deal leading some to wonder if france was demonstrating its credentials. saudi arabia in particular and gain favor with them. france signed a multibillion dollar defense deal in recent months. in addition, of course, distancing itself from america is a reflex action for the french especially for a socialist president. but whatever france's motives, concerns have some merit. they seem to center on iran's nuclear reactor in iraq, which is under construction and if completed, could easily produce
enough weapons grade plutonium for one or two bombs every year. the deal being proposed would have stopped that process from going forward. if france's objections can be assuaged, some of the other opponents cannot. netanyahu wants iran to have no enrichment capacity at all. for iran, that's a red line. it's not entirely clear whether netanyahu's demand is a bargaining position or whether he will in fact denounce any deal that allows the iranians to enrich uranium. saudi arabia will not accept any deal no matter what is in it. saudi on sections to islamic republic of iran regard tehran as a shiite enemy that must be opposed relentlessly and unequivocally. it will persist whatever the resolution of it. and then the republicans in the
united states. some of whom have serious objections and others who see this as an easy avenue to outflank president obama on the right placing him in the familiar spot of a liberal democrat who is soft on america's foes. many of us assumed the greatest obstacle to a deal would come from tehran. supreme leader and revolutionary guard remain deeply anti-american and may oppose concessions that they would have to make to get a deal. it's now clear that greater obstacles might lie in the path of the negotiators on the other side. the minute any deal is announced saudi arabia and israel will denounce it and many republicans will join in given that congress will have to pass laws to lift any of the major sanctions against iran, this could prove to be an obstacle that cannot be overcome. so obama faces two major challenges. first, he has to get a deal that hardliners in tehran can live
with and then he needs to get one that hardliners in washington and jerusalem and riyadh can abide. if he can do both, maybe he will deserve his nobel peace prize after you will. for more go to cnn.com/fareed and read my "time" column this week. let's get started. china's new leaders held a mysterious meeting this week called the third plenum. the big headline out of this meeting was a relaxation of the china's three decades old one child policy. beijing announced the end of re-education through labor camps. joining me to explain all of this, nicholas kristof a columnist for "the new york
times" who won one of two pulitzer prizes for his coverage and also elizabeth economy. is this as big of a deal as it looks like? >> the one child policy is a misnomer. on average a chinese woman has 1.5 children right now. it's a real relaxation. most people will have a chance to have a second child and that's a real step forward. it's a promising -- this is something that's been talked about forever by the chinese government and interesting that the leader was able to push this through. >> liz, this is presumably because they look at the demograph demograph demographic future and within five or seven years they face a labor shortfall and have lots of old people and not enough young workers. >> they look at a situation right now where by 2050, a third of the population will be over 65 years old so they are quite
concerned. the truth is this relaxation is unlikely to produce transformation. it's going to be a slight bump, if anything. we're looking at maybe a million or two more children born per year and it's really not going to take effect for another 17 or 18 years if you stop to think about it in terms of impact on the labor force. so i think it is a positive step. i think it's liberalization of social policy from a regime that's not been terribly liberal but not a dramatic transformation in policy. >> one thing that strikes me is in asia as people get -- as women get more educated and people get rich, the fertility rates really drop off and stop having babies. south korea, japan, singapore, drop-off is dramatic. >> singapore went to overnight switching women to have more children and in china as elizabeth says they reached a point where there are a lot of forces reducing fertility other
than government policy. this will lead to more children but many people, you know, especially in cities just know the cost of educating your child as such they don't want to necessarily have a second child. >> china may still face that demographic challenge. what are labor through reeducation camps and what does it mean that they're closing? >> they have been around since the late 1950s. and what they basically turned into is an opportunity for local officials to detain, arrest people without trial for up to four years. and it's been a mechanism by which petty thieves and others can be put away but also political dissidents and people who complain, petitioners where people reportedly have been in labor through reeducation camps.
sometimes as many as 2 million have been detained. >> a step forward again? >> indeed a step forward in reformers have called for this for a long time. the question is whether the government who takes the people sent to reeducation through labor camps and sends them to prisons and jails instead and we don't know the answer to that yet. >> the big news supposed to come out of this conference was being signaled was comprehensive economic reform, legal reform. lots of hints that he would do something like 1978 or even in 1993 which was a big burst of economic reforms to get the chinese economy on the next big growth trajectory. didn't quite -- some announcement but not quite the drama that people had been expecting. >> i think what we have seen a
number of case res fors reforms announced were experiments already under way. land tenure reform, you know, holding officials accountable for pollution, all of these things are already experiments under way. i think what the chinese leadership have really done is simply say we're going to push forward with these reforms. a number of reforms that have been suggested for the free trade zone and interest rate liberalization and negative investment list, all of these things again are things that were put into this plenum document but is an affirmation of things moving forward. >> they don't do a big announced bang. >> that's true. this was a case where there had been a lot of anticipation there might indeed be a bang. and so instead there was a little bit of a fizzle. you know, we'll see where it
goes. i was disappointed especially a fight over the state owned companies and a real attempt to slap them down on part of reformers and looks like that failed. >> a final thought from both of you. for china to grow at the pace it needs to, it needed this big burst of reforms. do you worry that there will be a significant drop-off in chinese growth without significant reforms? >> i think that's likely to happen but it may show up in one to three years and not in next six months. >> the existing model for the chinese economy needs to be restructured. that can happen in various ways. >> so we still will have china to contend with for many, many decades. >> a place to watch. >> up next, typhoon haiyan. could anything have been done to lessen its impact? i have two great experts to explain.
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in many ways i suppose this was a perfect storm. in any event, i have two great guests joining me. stephen flynn is founding director of the center for resilience studies at northeastern university and advised both of the last two presidents on national security and laurie garrett is with us. first to you, what part of this surprised new terms of severity and the force? what took you by surprise? >> to some extent what took me by surprise is how slow it was for us to realize how devastating this storm was. it was clear that this was going to be a monumental event with the kinds of wind predicted, 190 knots close to 150 knots of
wind. that's a tremendous amount of wind that would ensure devastation in its wake. >> we should have realized that this was going to be massive and we didn't do enough preparation in advance? >> to an extraordinary extent, when it comes to disasters before they hit, time is your friend and after they hit, it becomes your enemy real quick. it seems that we need visuals that there is actually destruction before we kick into high gear. we need to be much more front loaded. i would argue the department of defense should have mobilie izi friday last week. we shouldn't have had to wait two days it took to get images of destruction to realize there was real destruction here. that much wind in a storm of that scale, you're going to have devastation. >> do you think the fact -- do you think there's anything about the philippine response that makes it different from some of the other countries you've seen that have handled natural disasters like? >> this is one of the largest
storms to hit a land mass in recorded history. anybody will be overwhelmed by it. it makes things really hard when it comes to moving things around. you have to move by plane. you have to move by boat. when you have basically the major transportation areas affected as they were in this case, logistics becomes a nightmare. so the challenge here is that if we haven't built in advance the infrastructure to withstand these kind of events, when it fails, it fails very badly. little things like the air traffic control obviously will fail when an airport is destroyed. you need to move that in very quickly otherwise the aid can't move. getting at the airport doesn't do much good if you can't push it out quickly and roads, debris, all of these are challenges that are monumental. this he would be for a first-world country and not only a developing country. >> laurie, when you look at this, the next phase is there's a lot of water and do you worry about waterborne diseases and
things like that? >> first thing i think about is traumatic injuries and people with terrible infections because of the lack of appropriate treatment of everything from a broken bone to scratches and lacerations and terrible things. then you add to that that they are exposed to the elements. they don't have shelter in a normally very hot climate mixed with a lot of rainfall and then they don't have clean water to drink. they don't have a steady supply of food and nutrients especially for the children. all of this puts people at tremendous risk regardless. now, you add to it the possibility of a haiti like scenario where people coming in try to do good bring microbes as hitchhikers with them and causing outbreaks in the case of haiti it was cholera which has persisted. >> you were telling me that was brought by peacekeepers who haiti and resulted in an explosion of cholera in the entire region, right?
>> it's not just haiti. it's now endemic so it's spread to dominican republic and own responders took it back to cuba and from cuba it has gone to mexico where now there's 180 cases reported so far in mexico in at least five mexican states. you see what happens if you don't get appropriate responses right in the beginning. now, the good news -- i think we have to admit there is some good news in this picture is that we are the learning curve as a global community so how we respond to these catastrophic events. we have less backbiting and squabbles between the responders. we have better coordination going on. i think each time -- each episode, each horror finds the international community trying
and grappling with ways to coordinate better and less suspicion of military responders such as steve is referring to having the u.s. military go in. and hopefully all of this is going to mean we'll have less errors made by the responders. the problem now is just simply logistics. you don't have functioning hospitals. you don't have electricity for your operating rooms. you don't have the ability to purify water supplies. all of the basics have been devastated. >> thank you both very much. the point you made, steve flynn, that stuck with me, is if we knew about this looking at the data and looking at the maps, could we have mobilized a better response up front or do we need to see devastation and see terrible images before we muster political world to put out resources. it's a terrible challenge. we'll get better and better information from computers and from all kinds of technology but we still need to move and if the only thing that moves us are these horrible images, we end up
waiting for the disaster any way. up next, what in the world. i have great checklist for you telling you how not to run an economy. i'll explain. i am today by luck. i put in the hours and built a strong reputation in the industry. i set goals and worked hard to meet them. i've made my success happen. so when it comes to my investments, i'm supposed to just hand it over to a broker and back away? that's not gonna happen. avo: when you work with a schwab financial consultant, you'll get the guidance you need with the control you want. talk to us today.
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now for what the world segment. startling images caught my eye this week. people making off with flat screen tvs and all kinds of appliances at bargain basement prices. it's not the holidays yet. this is what happened when the government of venezuela decided to play robin hood. the army took over the privately owned chain and slashed prices. the incident got me thinking that we talk about best practices for economies. there should be a list of things to avoid. a checklist title how to ruin
your economy. this isn't just a theoretical list. venezuela is checking each of the boxes in practice. internationalized business. that's what we saw them do with the electronic chain. tvs were so expensive because the united states is trying to bring down the venezuelan economy. it's not clear how his solution to take over the company will actually fix anything. that brings me to rule number two. create hyperinflation. the truth is the overall price of goods has risen 54% in venezuela this year. so if your household groceries cost 100 in january, they cost $154. prices go up so salaries have to go up. savings lose value. mid class loses its standard of
living and the entire economy suffers. rule number three, induce a currency crisis. what does inflation do? it devalues your currency. the official exchange rate is 6.3 for every greenback. in reality, the black market rate is seven to ten times that amount. for a country that imports 70% of its basic goods, this is a huge problem. you may remember recently that venezuela ran out of toilet paper. why? it's now running out of a different kind of paper. the money to pay for it. which brings me to rule number four. subsidize, subsidize, subsidize, if they are running out of money, they don't care. there have been two recent elections and at each one came a fresh set of promises. and remember, gas is free. venezuela not only subsidizes gas for its own people, it also gives heavily discounted oil to
cuba. all the while, it's running out of money. i could go on and on but i'll just point out one more rule. number five, which is become a dictatorship. the president won a vote this week to get decree powers. the ability to pass laws without consulting congress. he says he needs these powers to fix the economy and tackle corruption. after all, venezuela is ranked 181st of 189 countries for ease of doing business. it ranksed 165th for transparency. it took years for hugo chavez to take venezuela down to this point. by doubling down on those very policies, somehow he'll get a different outcome. so on points one through five, venezuela is on a fast track to ruin. the world saw this coming under chavez.
we hope for change but in his dying days, chavez picked up a mini me to stay the course. the only reason venezuela has been able to survive given this record of ruinous policies has been its oil wealth, which has given the government the revenues that cushion it from the effects of all its disasters. the sad reality is that venezuela is wasting the world's largest oil reserves. it could be as wealthy as saudi arabia or qatar. it could outstrip mexico and brazil. instead, it's beginning to look more and more like north korea. up next, i have one of my favorite historians on the show. robert carroll. he takes us back to one of the most important moments in the 20th century. the assassination of john f. kennedy when we come back. t, i p minimize my blood sugar spikes. then, a way to support heart health. ♪
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[ male announcer ] if you can't afford your medication, i'm candy crowley in washington with a check of the headlines. talks are set to resume this week on a proposal to ease sanctions against iran in exchange for the country curbing its nuclear program. earlier today on "state of the union" israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu said he's opposed to any such deal and he supports a move in congress to tighten sanctions against iran
even though the obama administration is warning that action could derail negotiations. >> friends, the best of friends, can have different opinions. we agree on a lot of things. there are some things we disagree on. i don't think this is -- from what i gather, this is not a partisan issue either. there are democrats who are calling for tougher sanctions and republicans who are saying to keep sanctions as they are. i'm speaking not from a partisan issue except one. i'm the prime minister of israel. i have to care for the survival of my country and iran maintaining its nuclear weapons capability is the capacity to produce nuclear weapons,directlf the jewish state. >> john kerry travels to israel friday to discuss the iran negotiation with netanyahu. the navy says two sailors were injured when a drone
malfunctioned and crashed into a ship during a training exercise. the incident occurred saturday off the southern california coast. the ship is headed back to its base where there will be an investigation into what caused the drone to malfunction. >> the upper midwestern united states is under a severe weather threat. tornadoes with widespread damaging winds could develop today across illinois, indiana and michigan and stretch as far south as tennessee. those are your top stories. "reliable sources" is at the top of the hour but now back to "fareed zakaria gps." the assassination of john f. kennedy on november 22nd, 1963, in dallas. after all of the commissions, books, movies, conspiracy theories, studies, tv shows and investigations, is it possible to have a unique take on the day and its aftermath? i would argue that my next guest
does. robert caro is a pulitzer prize winning writer, photographer and historian and has a new ebook on the topics called dallas, november 22, 1963. we have links to it on our website. welcome back to the show. >> glad to be back. >> when you looked a the th-- a this what i'm struck by is you begin a section of the book by saying it was going to be a kennedy day meaning -- >> the kennedys had a tradition that when they had a big event, the sun comes out. larry o'brien, one of his days says kennedy weather. >> and what was the kennedy presidency looking like at that moment? >> depends on what angle you were looking at it. his popularity for '64 election
was high. but all his legislation was stalled in congress. civil rights was boiling up in the south. his bill was going nowhere. it was bottled up with southern democrats that controlled congress. it was going nowhere. he needed a tax cut bill because unemployment was rising toward a totally unacceptable 5%. and tax rates needed to come down. all his major legislation was stalled. his presidency had two sides. at the same time, his personal glamour and popularity was making him more and more popular. >> he had bay of pigs. anything significant he accomplished. cuban missile crisis would have
been one thing where he triumphed in a complicated test of wills. >> the cuban missile crisis is not enough. we were on the verge of nuclear war with russia. when you listen to the tapes of the executive committee, you sometimes feel like almost everybody in that room was arguing for an invasion or a bombing strike. every time things got heated, he says something like, gentlemen, let's take a break and have dinner and we'll come back and talk. so it's like -- >> he's pulling them back. >> he's pulling them back. he said he's going to stop any soviet warship that passes the quarantine line, we're going to abort, which would have been an act coming very close to war. you know what he says? let's give them one more day. it's like he was saying let's
give peace one more day. he just finished reading barbara tuchman's book. you know what he said to ted? >> that book is a book about -- >> it's about how the nation stumbled into world war i by just one little escalation after another. unintended. he said if i make a mistake here, you know what? the title of the book about the cuban missile crisis is going to be, the missiles of october. he knew the world was on the verge of nuclear war and at the had to give enough time to accept a plan for peace. no one writes this. the letter that he sends saying we should not both be pulling tighter, he signs it very unusual way with respect.
>> when we comeback, i'll ask bob caro what he thinks about all of the conspiracy theories when we come back. ♪ tracks! they connect the factories built along the lines. and that means jobs, lots of people, making lots and lots of things. let's get your business rolling now, everybody sing. ♪ norfolk southern what's your function? ♪ ♪ helping this big country move ahead as one ♪ ♪ norfolk southern how's that function? ♪ i got this. [thinking] is it that time? the son picks up the check? [thinking] i'm still working. he's retired. i hope he's saving. i hope he saved enough. who matters most to you says the most about you. at massmutual we're owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us.
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we are back with robert caro, the great american historian talking about john f. kennedy and the assassination. you know there are people who look at where johnson was dead in the water, a life magazine article was about to come out. you describe an investigative story that would further undermine him. people look at all that and say this assassination really not only made johnson president but saved him from what might have been a complete collapse and is it possible that had the assassination not happened, johnson would have been so humiliated he would have had to resign? >> johnson to answer that part of your question, johnson himself felt that whether he had a second term or not, he was finished. that's the word he used. i'm finished. you know how we know that he really felt that way, he told
several of his key aides who if he had further ambitions, he said i'm done. one of them is asking him can i go to work for somebody else? he says go with him. i'm finished. so you say that johnson really felt that his career might be over. on the other hand, nothing that i ever found -- i've been doing research on johnson for a lot of years. nothing that i found in writing or in interviews led me to believe that whatever the story of the assassination really is, that lyndon johnson had anything to do with it. i never found anything that had anything to do with that. >> what do you think explains the conspiracy theories and the sense of why this assassination loomed so large in american
imagination. >> it's almost like myth. young, handsome, the athlete dying young at the height of his glory. you say beautiful man really. charming. handsome. murder. blood. violence. horror, you say here is this crack of the gunshot and in an instant this man is lying across his wife's lap basically in the back seat of a car with his head blown apart. blood all over her. for that reason alone it has all of the qualities of the mythic drama in the highest terms. then you also say, you know, there is the whole thing that
happened that you may be too young to remember, the four days of television that all the networks is only one broadcast. nielsen ratings show that for those four days, the television set in the average american home was on for 31.6 hours. that's eight hours a day that america is watching the same words said by the same people and you say, i wrote in my book, you know, the funeral procession. you think of triumphs of rome. this is the closest that a republican ever came to it. a procession marching up to the capitol with the great dome of the capitol with columns in the sky marching toward at first you have the generals, joint chiefs of staff, the priests in their flowing robes and then you have the matched gray horses, the
caisson. behind it, a single sailor holding a flag. kennedy had been a naval lieutenant. that's the president's personal flag. great black horse prancing there. forget politics. forget tragedy. this is a drama such as you have very few -- you have very few comparison to this in all of history and drumming it into history and the american people is television. everybody is watching. the nation is united in a way, united in watching this in a way you say when did this ever happen? >> and it feels to me that it's always about where america was in 1963. america was literally on top of the world. it accounted for 35% of global gdp. it had not had a major stumble
if you think about the '40s and '50s it rebuilt europe and japan and starting the peace corps and i think in a sense what comes after is vietnam. it's the civil rights struggles. it's the violence in almost every major american city. so in a strange sense it is the great divide where people look back and say if kennedy had lived, maybe america would have had a different trajectory. >> the great divide is a great phrase. a i'll give you another word. watersh watershed. the top of a mountain divide. on one side the waters run way and on the other side they run another way. america was a different place on november 21st than it was five years later when lyndon johnson left the presidency. as we just said, the kennedy
funeral procession is the height of the republic in washington. five years later, you could see the fires burning from the looters just a few blocks away. you talk to johnson's wife and say what can you remember? she said i remember walking to work and there were armed troops in jeeps on every corner. protesters everywhere. and people outside the white house -- i mean, imagine a president living with his family, his wife, and two daughters in the white house and in parts of the white house you could hear because pennsylvania avenue was not then closed off. protesters could come up to the fence. inside the white house you could hear them chanting, hey, hey, lbj, how kids did you kill today? i mean, what you said is exactly right. a kennedy assassination when you
look back on the 20th century is the great divide in american history. >> robert caro, pleasure, as always. cnn has a great new documentary from executive producer tom hanks on the subject of that dark day in november 50 years ago. it's called the assassination of president kennedy and it airs for north american viewers tonight at 9:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. eastern. don't miss it. up next on "gps" which nations have opened their wallets for the philippines after disaster struck there last weekend and which have not been so generous? it's an interesting list when we get back. o grow by over 90 million people, and almost all that growth is going to be in cities. what's the healthiest and best way for them to grow so that they really become cauldrons of prosperity and cities of opportunity? what we have found is that if that family is moved into safe, clean affordable housing, places that have access to great school systems, access to jobs and multiple transportation modes
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jbut when it comes to investing, things i prefer to do on my own. i just think it's better to work with someone. someone you feel you can really partner with. unfortunately, i've found that some brokerage firms don't always encourage that kind of relationship. that's why i stopped working at the old brokerage, and started working for charles schwab. avo: what kind of financial consultant are you looking for?
the 50th anniversary of john f. kennedy's assassination brings me to my question of the week. who was the only u.s. president so escape two assassination attempts in the same month? was it grant, jackson, ford, or truman? stay tuned and we'll tell you the correct answer. this week's book of the week is "the man he became." the author looks at just one aspect of franklin roosevelt's life. his struggle with polio and he shares remarkable light on the man who became america's greatest modern president. he shows that it was fdr's battle to overcome this disability that most profoundly turned him into the man he became and the president he became. now for the last look. death. destruction. hunger. fear. shattering images continue to
come out of the philippines following typhoon haiyan and before and after maps like those from digital globes show the true impact of the devastation. dozens of countries of course have pledged to help. the united states pledged $20 million in aid not to mention navy ships and an aircraft carrier. britain pledged 16 million and promised to match the first 8 million in u.k. public donations. the u.n. pledged 25 million. australia, 9 million. vatican, 4 million. what about china. the world's second largest economy and emerging superpower, its government initially pledged $100,000 to the philippines for disaster relief. relations are frayed between the two nations following tensions over island disputes in the south china sea. that might well have been a reason to provide an especially large donation so that china could show it is upset with the
filipino government and not its government. in any event, this aid promise did not go unnoticed. even tiny taiwan with 20 million people pledged $200,000 double china's initial pledge. following harsh criticism, the beijing government increased its pledge but as of a week after the storm only added 1.6 million in relief supplies. china's main media agency has called for a de-americanized world. what could be more constructive than humanitarian disaster relief? the correct answer to our question is c, president gerald ford. on september 5th, 1975, a gun was pointed at ford but was tackled by the secret service before pulling the trigger.
17 days later, the gun was fired at the president but the bystander grabbed her arm and she missed ford. ford is the only american president to be shot at by a woman. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i'll see you in ex-week. stay tuned for "reliable sources." cbs' "60 minutes" took one minute and 15 seconds to correct its report on benghazi. correspondent admitting she was misled by a key source who claims he was there. >> the most important thing to every person at "60 minutes" is the truth and the truth is we made a mistake. >> for some the apology and retraction were not enough. dan rather who was ousted after his own "60 minutes" firestorm several years ago was quick to point fingers skyward. >> whatever happened and whatever any blame there is to assess, it starts at the